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21 May, 2025

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Climatic Projections

Climatic projections are essential tools that help us understand and anticipate future climate changes based on various scenarios. These projections indicate a significant rise in temperatures across South Asia, with estimates ranging from 1.56°C to 5.44°C by 2099. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations body, projects an annual mean surface temperature increase of 2.5°C to 4°C by the end of the century. Additionally, there is a potential 10% rise in summer monsoon intensity by 2100. These changes are expected to impact agriculture and water resources significantly, with increased monsoon intensity, declining water availability, and shifting rainfall patterns. For instance, in Maharashtra, excess rainfall could affect soybean and cotton yields, while rising temperatures may reduce wheat and gram quality.

 

Climatic Projections and India's Response to Climate Change

 

Recognizing the importance of addressing climate change, the Government of India launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), outlining eight key missions:

 

  • National Solar Mission
  • National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
  • National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
  • National Water Mission
  • National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
  • National Mission for a Green India
  • National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
  • National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

 

These missions aim to promote sustainable development while addressing climate change challenges. The NAPCC serves as a comprehensive framework to guide India's efforts in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts.

 

The Godavari Initiative's Use of Climatic Projections in the Jambutake Watershed, Nashik

 

The Godavari Initiative (TGI) is at the forefront of employing advanced techniques such as GIS analysis and climatic projections to develop strategies that mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and water resources across the Godavari River Basin. This effort is part of TGI's broader operations to better understand the basin and further the goal of sustainable management through data-backed, evidence-driven research. One such study conducted by TGI in the Jambutake watershed, Nashik, revealed significant findings.

 

  • The maximum temperature between 2012 and 2024 was 31.9°C, and this is expected to increase by 0.9°C by 2040 and 2°C by 2060. Such changes may lead to evapotranspiration, drying up of water bodies, and shortened crop duration, resulting in less time for grains to develop.
  • The average minimum temperature between 2012 and 2024 was 21.6°C, and this is expected to increase by 1.67°C by 2040 and by 1.85°C by 2060. These changes may lead to an increase in pests and diseases, altered irrigation schedules, and crop damage.
  • The average annual rainfall between 2012 and 2024 was 631 mm, and this is projected to increase by 120 mm by 2040 and by 185 mm by 2060. This may lead to losses for rainfed farmers due to changes in the rain schedule, root damage from flooding, and loss of soil nutrients from flooding.

 

 

By employing climatic projections, we can gain a deeper understanding of the environment and its future changes. These projections are crucial for developing strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture and water resources. They help in predicting temperature and rainfall patterns, which in turn allows for better planning and management of crops, irrigation schedules, and water resources. Collaborative efforts with stakeholders are essential to address the challenges posed by climate change and ensure the well-being of the community. Through data-backed, evidence-driven research, we can create a sustainable and resilient future for the region.

 

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